Revenue Calculator
Revenue as traffic times conversion times order value times repeat purchase, with what ten percent on each is worth and what four optimistic estimates do.
Visitors a month 42,000
Conversion rate 2.3%
Customers 966.0
Order value $68.00
Orders a customer 1.40
Revenue a month $91,963.20
a year $1,103,558.40 if it repeats
revenue a visitor $2.1896
gross profit $47,820.86 at 52%
What ten percent on each is worth
visitors $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
conversion rate $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
order value $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
orders a customer $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
which means the four are worth exactly the same, so the question is which is cheapest to move rather than which is most powerful
All four together
ten percent better on each $134,643.32, 46.4% more
ten percent worse on each $60,337.06, 34.4% less
the spread $74,306.27, from four estimates that were each only ten percent out
What a target would need
$114,954.00 52,500 visitors, or 2.88% converting, or $85.00 an order
$137,944.80 63,000 visitors, or 3.45% converting, or $102.00 an order
$183,926.40 84,000 visitors, or 4.6% converting, or $136.00 an order
Revenue is 42,000 visitors at 2.3% converting at $68.00 across 1.40
orders a customer, which is $91,963.20 a month. Ten percent on any one
of them is worth $9,196.32.
Multiplying four estimates multiplies the error in them. Ten percent
optimism on each gives $134,643.32, which is 46.4% above the base, and
the same error downwards gives $60,337.06. A plan that reads as mildly
ambitious on every line is aggressive overall.
The four are not independent, which is the part the arithmetic cannot
show. More traffic usually converts worse, because the cheapest traffic
is the coldest; a higher order value often comes from a discount
structure that lowers margin. Model a change as a trade rather than an
addition.
Conversion rate is usually the cheapest of the four to move and the
slowest to get credit for it. It is also the only one that improves
every other channel at the same time, since a better checkout works for
traffic you did not pay for.
Order value moves through basket size rather than price most of the
time. Bundles, thresholds for free delivery and a second item at the
right moment do more than a price rise, and they do not cost the
conversion rate that a price rise does.
Repeat purchase is the factor with the longest lag and the largest
effect on a business. It compounds where the others do not: a customer
who returns twice is worth two acquisitions that were never paid for.
This projects a month forward by repeating it. Seasonality, a single
large order and a promotion all break that, so the annual figure is an
arithmetic consequence of the inputs rather than a forecast.
Output is valid and updates as you type.
Fix the highlighted fields to update the output.
Revenue is four numbers multiplied: visitors, conversion rate, order value, and how many orders a customer places. Written that way it settles an argument teams have every quarter. A ten percent improvement in any one of the four is worth exactly the same money, so the question is which is cheapest to move rather than which is most powerful.
The same property is dangerous from the other side. A plan that improves all four by ten percent is a plan that assumes 46 percent growth. The same plan with all four coming in ten percent light lands at 66 percent of target. Four estimates that each feel conservative multiply into a number that is not.
And the factors are not independent, which is the part the arithmetic cannot show. Buying more traffic usually lowers the conversion rate, because the cheapest traffic is the coldest.
How to use
- Put in the visitors for a period and the conversion rate.
- Put in the average order value, and the orders a customer if you are counting customers rather than orders.
- Read the two tables: what ten percent on each factor is worth, and what all four together do.
Example
42,000 visitors a month, 2.3 percent converting, $68 an order, 1.4 orders a customer:
Customers 966.0
Revenue a month $91,963.20
a year $1,103,558.40 if it repeats
revenue a visitor $2.1896
gross profit $47,820.86 at 52%
What ten percent on each is worth
visitors $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
conversion rate $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
order value $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
orders a customer $101,159.52, $9,196.32 more
which means the four are worth exactly the same
All four together
ten percent better on each $134,643.32, 46.4% more
ten percent worse on each $60,337.06, 34.4% less
the spread $74,306.27, from four estimates that were each only ten percent out
What a target would need
$114,954.00 52,500 visitors, or 2.88% converting, or $85.00 an order
$183,926.40 84,000 visitors, or 4.6% converting, or $136.00 an order$74,306 of spread on a $91,963 month, from being ten percent wrong four times. That is the honest uncertainty in most revenue plans.
Pitfalls
Equal levers, unequal costs. They are worth the same and they do not cost the same. Conversion rate is usually the cheapest to move and the slowest to get credit for; traffic is the most visible and the most expensive.
The factors interact. More traffic usually converts worse. A higher order value often comes from a discount structure that lowers margin. Model a change as a trade, not an addition.
Revenue a visitor is the summary figure. It rolls conversion rate and order value into one number and is the fastest way to see whether a traffic increase actually helped.
Conversion rate improvements are portable. A better checkout works for traffic you did not pay for too, which is why it is the only lever that improves every channel at once.
Order value moves through basket size more than price. Bundles, delivery thresholds and a well-timed second item do more than a price rise, and they do not cost the conversion rate a price rise does.
Repeat purchase has the longest lag and the largest effect. It compounds where the others do not: a customer who returns twice is worth two acquisitions nobody paid for.
An annual figure from one month is arithmetic, not a forecast. Seasonality, one large order and a promotion all break it.
Compatibility
Arithmetic in the browser: nothing is uploaded and nothing is stored.
The four factors are multiplied in a single pure function, which is why the ten-percent table produces four identical figures rather than four nearly identical ones. The test suite asserts that equality to six decimal places and asserts the compound case separately, since the two together are the point of the tool.
Setting orders a customer to one removes that row rather than printing a redundant factor, and the period selector changes only the annual multiplier: weekly becomes 52, monthly 12, quarterly 4.
The target table solves for each factor independently, so each line is what that factor alone would have to be. Moving two at once needs less from each, which the compound table shows.